The Week Ahead In Gold - Nov 5, 2016
Tick tock tick tock tick tock... The clock is quickly winding down to the U.S. Presidential election, and right now it appears to be a dead heat.
Republican candidate and businessman Donald Trump has closed the gap between himself and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, with at least one pole recently putting Trump ahead in the race.
The bottom line? This thing could go either way right now…
Markets have remained relatively calm and subdued ahead of the highly anticipated election, although nerves may become considerably more frayed in the coming days. Investors may potentially seek refuge in perceived safe haven assets early next week, and gold and silver could potentially attract significant buying interest.
Some analysts have suggested that the Presidential vote could be akin to the Brexit vote seen back in June. Following the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, markets were hit hard, with equities as well as commercial commodities being heavily sold off.
The world, however, did not end.
Markets proceeded to bounce back, with stocks rebounding strongly and achieving new all-time highs in the process. Commodities recovered as well, and within a few weeks it was almost as if nothing had happened at all.
Will this election provide a similar scenario?
Possibly, but there are some major differences. A Trump victory could bring with it a significant amount of uncertainty as some analysts have questioned his policies and cited a lack of detail on how he plans to accomplish some of his goals.
On the other hand, a Clinton victory brings with it its own set of uncertainties, such as whether or not the email server issues that have been the topic of so much discussion are finally put to bed.
What if Clinton wins, but the election results are disputed? Then what?
Although many articles in financial media have discussed the idea of sharply higher gold if Trump does in fact pull off a victory, we believe that a strong case can be made for gold to go sharply higher regardless of who wins the race.
It seems like a long time ago now that investors were strictly focused on the Fed and the potential timing of the next interest rate hike. Friday’s U.S. jobs data was considered to be another indication that the Fed will hike in December.
Now that the timing of the next rate hike appears to be a foregone conclusion, investors will begin to turn their attention elsewhere. Stocks have appeared much shakier in recent action, and some analysts have been calling a top in equities. Weaker crude oil seen in recent days could potentially exacerbate any stock weakness.
The dollar index may also remain at the forefront of investor attention. A stronger greenback has likely been a significant factor in gold’s lack of sustainable upside in recent weeks, although the dollar has been showing some signs of fatigue.
Gold will once again try to maintain trade above the $1300 per ounce level with a close above that on Friday. Investor anxiety over the election and its results as well as potentially weaker stocks and a weaker dollar could provide the gold bulls with enough ammunition to take prices to higher, yet sustainable levels.