The Week Ahead In Gold - Feb 13, 2017
The gold market remains on the offensive as ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration and implementation of its policies continues to cloud investor sentiment.
That being said, however, investors are still giving the new administration the benefit of the doubt.
Stocks carved out fresh all-time highs this past week as hopes for major tax reforms are riding high. President Trump has indicated that a major announcement regarding taxes would be unveiled in the near-future. This was likely the primary catalyst for stock buying this past week, and could potentially fuel a much more significant rally in equities and risk assets if Trump’s plans are met with open arms by investors.
On the other hand, if the new administration’s tax plans do not carry a certain “shock and awe” type of effect, markets could potentially be setting themselves up for disappointment.
Although the notion of significant tax reforms has investors excited-for the time being anyway- there are still numerous issues that could potentially weigh on investor sentiment and stock prices.
The ongoing debate over Trump’s immigration ban (and appeals over the plan being rejected) may continue to feed some degree of investor angst. Other issues, such as Trump’s now infamous tweeting, may also potentially have an important impact on investors and markets.
The new administration’s stance on the dollar is even the subject of debate, and that has likely been a factor in the greenback’s lack of upside follow through following its post-election highs. The dollar does appear to be poised for another try higher, however, and the dollar index is once again trading firmly above the 100 level.
After trending higher for a couple weeks, bond prices backed off a bit this past week as interest rates once again started to climb. Rates have not, however, challenged their post-election highs again.
To say that there are numerous mixed signals in the markets might now could be an understatement. At some point, something’s gotta give… The question is: what will it be and when might it happen?
Gold prices and rates rising along together could potentially signal trouble ahead for equities. Such a scenario should not be that surprising, however, as stocks have been rising for years now.
Perhaps investors are thinking about how long it has been since the last major financial crises. It has been several years since the financial crises of 2008, and the U.S. could be walking right into the arms of recession.
Given the sheer amount of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration as well as the possibility of economic recession, gold may potentially continue its recent ascent. The Fed may elect to hold off on several additional rate hikes (some analysts have already been questioning the possibility of three hikes this year) and rates could remain very low for some time to come if recession does hit or if other geopolitical issues fuel widespread risk aversion.
The next several weeks may be very telling, and it is quite possible that gold has already put in a significant long-term bottom.